Why I’m Passing on United Health (UNH) at $311
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) looked like a screaming buy at $311 a share—but I’m sitting this one out. Here’s why this complicated, risk-heavy business doesn’t make the cut.
Why I Bought $GOOG at $155 — and Think the Market Got it Wrong
Google’s 10% dip is an overreaction. With a 17x P/E, top-tier AI (Gemini), YouTube dominance, cloud growth, and a massive $80B buyback, $GOOG is the best deal in Big Tech.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Why I Bought $GOOG at $155 — and Think the Market Got it Wrong
The 10% drop after renewed Apple search headlines? Emotional overreaction. The market panicked on recycled fears that Apple may eventually divert some search traffic away from Google — a possibility that’s been on the table for years. Here’s why I see this dip as a buying opportunity, not a red flag.
Let’s start with the foundation: Google Search. Despite the biggest threat to its dominance in over a decade — from generative AI and competitors like Bing and ChatGPT — Google has retained nearly all of its market share. Why? Because search is sticky. Once people are getting “good enough” results, they don’t want to switch platforms, download new apps, or relearn habits. There’s massive behavioral inertia at play, and Google benefits from it every single day.
Then there’s YouTube, which now commands a larger share of streaming than Netflix. It’s not just a content platform — it’s an ad-driven juggernaut with Shorts competing directly with TikTok and a growing suite of creator monetization tools. This is a revenue stream with serious headroom.
And let’s not forget Waymo. The self-driving unit is doubling its fleet next year and continues to quietly push forward in a space where being first isn’t nearly as important as being safe, reliable, and eventually profitable. If Waymo delivers, it becomes a multi-billion dollar upside layered on top of an already dominant business.
Google also controls the browser that most people use to access the internet. Chrome continues to gain share while Safari declines. That’s another layer of dominance: Browser leads to search, which leads to ad revenue — all inside Google’s ecosystem.
Now, about AI. Some critics say the moat has cracked. I disagree. We’ve had two and a half years to assess the impact of generative AI on Google’s core ad business, and the evidence just isn’t there. Search revenue remains resilient. Meanwhile, Gemini — Google’s answer to GPT — is catching fire. The latest version, Gemini 2.5 Pro, is topping leaderboards:
- #1 on LMArena for human preference
- Best performer on WebDev Arena, ahead of GPT-4o
- Leading real-world coding tasks
- 84% on the GPQA Diamond benchmark for scientific reasoning
And Gemini isn’t just a flashy demo. It’s being integrated across Search, Gmail, Docs, Android, and Chrome. Unlike competitors chasing monetization from scratch, Google simply folds it into tools billions already use.
Let’s talk valuation. The average P/E for the U.S. tech sector sits around 25.68. Google trades at just 17x earnings. That’s a discount with no good reason. The company has world-class AI infrastructure, explosive YouTube growth, and real momentum in Google Cloud — which is even outpacing AWS in certain enterprise and AI workloads. Gemini’s rollout highlights a culture of speed, execution, and adaptability. Google isn't reacting to the future — they’re building it.
This is a company with vision, scale, and the capital to execute. Cash printing. Global reach. Diversified growth levers. That’s not something to sell because of a headline.
And if that wasn’t enough, Alphabet just authorized an $80 billion buyback. Based on past activity, they repurchase about $5.4B per month. But with shares down 10%, May could see an aggressive $6–8B deployment — a confident signal from a company flush with $110B in cash. That’s 7–10% of the full authorization, potentially front-loaded while shares are cheap.
Final Thought:
If the DOJ breaks up Google? Even better. A forced spin-off would likely unlock hidden value — YouTube alone could be worth as much as some entire public companies.
This isn’t a growth-at-any-price story. It’s a bet on deeply embedded infrastructure, habit-driven dominance, and a company still building the rails of the modern web.
“Know what’s enough. Build what matters.”
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