The Death Clock Is Ticking (Carpe Diem, Motherfucker)
I put a death clock on my desk—not to be dark, but to stay honest. Life doesn’t last forever. So the question is: what are you doing today that actually matters?
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Why I’m Passing on UNH at $311
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) dropped to $311 a share this week. A few years ago, that would’ve triggered a buy alert for me: dominant player, growing dividend, historically low valuation, and a fortress-like balance sheet.
But I’m passing. And I think it’s the right call.
Because here’s the thing: just because something looks cheap doesn’t mean it’s a good investment. Sometimes the market is wrong. But sometimes it’s early. And in this case, I think it sees something that I don’t want to ignore.
UNH is facing rising costs in its Medicare Advantage business—driven by sicker-than-expected patients and higher utilization. Their CFO basically admitted that not only did they get caught off guard, but those pressures are now spreading beyond just senior care. They pulled 2025 guidance entirely and fired the CEO.
That’s not noise. That’s a company resetting expectations.
And here’s where it gets uncomfortable: there are signs that UnitedHealth may have used aggressive, even questionable, coding practices to boost government reimbursements. A Wall Street Journal investigation pointed to billions in potentially inflated revenue. That’s not the kind of “tailwind” I want to bet on.
Then there’s the political risk. Medicaid reimbursement is always a hot-button issue. With a president who often seems to make policy based on mood rather than strategy, a company like UnitedHealth—with huge government contracts and a complex reimbursement structure—could be a prime target in a political dogfight. Whether it’s pricing scrutiny, regulatory investigations, or a headline-grabbing crackdown on “corporate greed,” the fallout could get messy fast.
This business is just more complex than I’m comfortable with. That doesn’t make it a bad company. It just makes it a bad fit for me.
So even at $311 a share—even with a forward P/E of 12.5—I’m sitting this one out. Because the real goal isn’t to find cheap stocks. It’s to find understandable businesses where I can see a clear path to value creation.
Right now, I don’t see it with UNH. And I’m learning to be okay with that.
“Know what’s enough. Build what matters.”
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