Intuit Stock and the AI Panic: The Small Business Reality
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Novo Nordisk Stock: The Duopoly Thesis in the GLP-1 Weight Loss Market
A month ago, Novo Nordisk traded at $64.
Today, February 23,2026, it closed under $40.
The drop accelerated after CagriSema showed 23% weight loss versus 25% for Eli Lilly’s Zepbound.
Most analysts believed Novo would leapfrog Lilly in the GLP-1 weight loss drugs race.
They didn’t.
At the same time, Novo introduced a $150-per-month pricing option to expand access to its obesity treatments.
This isn’t just a data story.
It’s an expectations story.
And expectations drive stock prices.
I’ve seen this before in markets — most recently during the AI panic vs. small business reality moment with Intuit — when the narrative outruns the underlying economics and price moves faster than business fundamentals.
The GLP-1 Weight Loss Drug Market Is Big Enough for Two
The obesity drug market is not a niche.
It is structural.
GLP-1 weight loss drugs are not solving a temporary issue. They are addressing a chronic, generational health problem.
That matters.
Because when the total addressable market is enormous, it doesn’t have to be winner-take-all.
The market has framed this as Eli Lilly vs Novo Nordisk.
But this may ultimately be a duopoly.
#2 in a $100B+ obesity drug market can still be wildly profitable.
I don’t need Novo Nordisk stock to represent the category king.
I need it to remain durable and relevant.
CagriSema vs Zepbound — Why the Market Repriced Novo Nordisk Stock
The CagriSema trial results disappointed relative to expectations.
23% weight loss is extraordinary medicine.
But the market expected more.
It expected Novo to leapfrog Lilly.
Instead, Zepbound still appears slightly more effective.
That subtle shift matters.
When a growth stock loses narrative leadership, valuation resets quickly.
That doesn’t mean the business is broken.
It means the multiple changes.
Novo Nordisk’s $150 Pricing Strategy and Margin Questions
Novo’s $150 per month pricing plan is significant.
Lower pricing can expand adoption.
Lower friction can increase volume.
But volume only helps if margins stabilize.
This is what I’m watching closely.
Does the pricing strategy meaningfully expand the GLP-1 pill adoption curve?
Or does it simply reset pricing lower across the category?
This is no longer just a scientific race.
It’s an economic one.
When a Growth Stock Becomes a Durable Franchise
I think we are seeing Novo Nordisk transition from a growth stock into a mature franchise.
That’s not a collapse.
That’s evolution.
Growth stocks must constantly surprise.
Durable franchises compound quietly.
If Novo becomes a steady, cash-generating pharmaceutical company growing mid-single digits inside a massive obesity market, that can still be a good investment.
It just won’t be explosive.
And that’s okay.
Position Sizing, Scaling In, and Long-Term Investing Discipline
The real lesson for me isn’t about CagriSema.
It’s about position sizing.
I tend to “shoot my shot” when I have conviction.
Buy the full position.
Plant the flag.
Move on.
But scaling into stock positions is a discipline.
If I had built this $20,000 position over time instead of committing it all at once, my stress would be lower and my flexibility higher.
That’s a lesson in long-term investing strategy.
Conviction without humility becomes ego.
And investing has a way of correcting ego quickly.
Where I Stand
I was wrong about immediate leadership.
But I still believe the GLP-1 weight loss market is large enough for two dominant players.
I still believe #2 in a duopoly can generate durable earnings power.
Novo Nordisk stock may no longer be a growth rocket.
It may be maturing into a durable franchise.
If expectations are now low, there is room to surprise.
I’m not buying more.
I’m not selling.
I’m doing the homework.
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