I skipped Intel at $20 because the numbers looked terrible, only to watch the government step in with unprecedented support. Missing wasn’t failure—it was discipline, and patience is what keeps you in the game.
Back when Intel was trading in the $19–$20 range, I had a feeling the U.S. government wouldn’t let them slip too far. TSMC was eating their lunch, and it seemed obvious Washington would step in to make sure America had its own chip champion.
But the fundamentals were a mess. Sales were decelerating quarter after quarter. Intel was burning around $4 billion a year in free cash flow. That’s not just a rough patch, that’s what all bad looks like. Normally, a company with those numbers ends up cutting to the bone, restructuring, or diluting shareholders. It looked like dead money.
What I missed was the scale of the backstop. The CHIPS Act turned into billions in grants, loans, and tax credits. Then came the NVIDIA investment and SoftBank’s stake, clear signals that this wasn’t just about one company, it was about national security. The level of support has been unprecedented.
And here’s the kicker: the U.S. government’s effective stake in Intel is already up 50 percent from those lows. That’s how quickly sentiment shifted once the subsidies and strategic capital lined up.
Now the stock is in the low 30s, and I can admit it: I missed it. But missing isn’t failure, it’s discipline.
I’ve missed before too. See my take on passing on UNH at $311 here
Warren Buffett put it best back in 1974: “I call investing the greatest business in the world, because you never have to swing. You stand at the plate, the pitcher throws you General Motors at 47, U.S. Steel at 39, and nobody calls a strike on you. There’s no penalty except opportunity lost. All day you wait for the pitch you like; then, when the fielders are asleep, you step up and hit it.”
That’s the game. You don’t have to swing until you’re ready.
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Made with Bullet