Why I Added to My CROX Position
Crocs stock fell 27% on earnings, but I added to my CROX position. Here’s why I believe in dollar-cost averaging, brand strength, and long-term durability despite short-term uncertainty.
Intuit Stock under $400 and the AI Panic: The Small Business Reality
The market has a habit of declaring extinction before the funeral.
This time the target isn’t one company. It’s an entire category.
The argument is that artificial intelligence is going to make traditional software obsolete.
That broad brush — the idea that “software is dead” — is where opportunity begins.
So when Intuit dropped under $400 after living between $700 and $800 not that long ago, I didn’t panic.
I bought.
Not because I’m predicting the future.
Because I understand the present.
The View From Inside My Businesses
Over the years, I’ve ended up with a few different ventures.
Catering.
An SEO company that helps small businesses generate leads.
A full-service events arm that grew out of Apple Spice.
And even a small collectibles project I wrote about in Business Lessons from Selling Cards on eBay with My Kids.
They may look like different lanes on the surface, but underneath they share the same backbone.
They all run through QuickBooks.
Estimates, invoices, payroll, reconciliation, sales tax, quarterly filings — it all flows through the same system.
This isn’t theoretical. It’s the daily rhythm of keeping things moving.
What I really understand is this:
Businesses are trying to grow revenue and reduce expenses.
Bookkeeping isn’t where they look for transformation. It’s administrative infrastructure. It’s necessary, but it’s not aspirational. No founder wakes up excited to overhaul accounting software.
There simply isn’t enough incentive to make a disruptive change.
Switching systems takes time. It requires retraining employees. It disrupts accountants. It introduces risk. Most small businesses standardize on a platform and stay there because the cost of change outweighs the potential upside.
In practice, employees, bookkeepers, and accountants have largely agreed on QuickBooks as the common language. That shared agreement creates powerful stickiness.
AI: Replacement or Augmentation?
What I don’t understand is the either-or framing.
Why does it have to be AI or software?
Intuit can remain a software company and integrate AI. In fact, that’s the most logical outcome. Established platforms have distribution, data, trust, and paying customers. AI becomes a layer that enhances what already exists.
We saw this play out with Alphabet Inc. — something I wrote about in Why I Bought Google Stock at $155. The early narrative suggested AI search would replace Google. Instead, Google incorporated AI directly into search. Now when you type a query, you often receive an AI-generated summary at the top of the results.
The platform didn’t disappear. It evolved.
There’s no obvious reason accounting software would be different.
AI can improve categorization.
AI can improve forecasting.
AI can reduce manual entry.
AI can flag anomalies.
But none of that requires the destruction of the underlying system.
Companies like Intuit may actually be better positioned to deploy AI precisely because they already have massive amounts of structured financial data and deeply embedded customer relationships.
I don’t see the replacement argument.
I see augmentation.
A Fair Counterpoint
To be fair, there is a real argument on the other side.
AI could eventually abstract away traditional software interfaces. Instead of navigating dashboards and menus, a business owner might simply tell an intelligent system to run payroll, file quarterly taxes, or generate financial forecasts. If AI-native platforms become dramatically simpler, cheaper, and fully automated, switching costs could fall faster than incumbents expect.
It’s also possible that accounting becomes embedded directly into banking infrastructure. If your bank categorizes transactions, calculates tax liability, reserves funds, and files digitally on your behalf, standalone accounting platforms could face margin pressure even if they don’t disappear entirely.
And even if Intuit remains dominant, AI investment could compress margins in the short term through higher R&D spending or increased competition.
Those are real risks.
But when I compare that theoretical future to what I see today inside my businesses, the timeline feels longer and the hurdle feels higher. Compliance infrastructure built on trust, shared standards, and accountant familiarity doesn’t get replaced overnight. It tends to evolve.
The question isn’t whether AI changes accounting software.
It almost certainly will.
The question is whether it eliminates the need for trusted platforms that already serve millions of businesses and individuals.
From where I sit, augmentation feels more likely than replacement.
The Principle
Peter Lynch famously advised investors to invest in what they know.
Not what sounds sophisticated.
Not what trends online.
What you actually understand.
Markets swing between optimism and pessimism, sometimes dramatically. Mr. Market has moods. When fear dominates pricing, that’s when experience matters most.
I understand what happens when payroll doesn’t run.
I understand what happens when invoices don’t go out.
And I understand that businesses will always focus on growing revenue and controlling costs. Administrative infrastructure, especially when it is standardized and trusted, tends to persist.
Artificial intelligence may change how software functions. It may automate tasks, improve forecasting, and reduce errors. But it does not eliminate the need for accurate records, compliance, and shared systems that employees and accountants already understand.
The need endures.
Embracing Enough
You don’t need to understand everything about artificial intelligence to invest rationally.
You don’t need to forecast the next technological wave or become an expert in every sector.
You just need to know what you truly know.
For me, that’s small business.
Knowing what you really know is enough.
Enough to stay calm when headlines get loud.
Enough to recognize when fear drives pricing.
Enough to act without needing certainty.
The market will always find a new story to obsess over.
But invoices still need to be sent.
Payroll still needs to run.
The books still need to close.
And sometimes, that simple reality is more than enough.
“Know what’s enough. Build what matters.”
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