After saying I wouldn’t buy yesterday, I saw signs in the bond market and political landscape that told me it was time to move. Here’s why I bought NVO and CROX—and what happened next.
I was planning to sit on my hands and wait, but this morning I changed my mind. The opportunity to start buying was here.
What flipped my thinking was an overnight development: a very strong 10-year U.S. Treasury auction. Even with that strength, rates kept climbing — finishing at 4.51%. That level seemed untenable for the U.S. government. When bonds and stocks started falling together, it looked like the game of political chicken had been pushed about as far as it could go. We were nearing a point where the White House would have to admit they were, in effect, driving the U.S. economy off a cliff.
The first rule of investing is that you’re never 100% sure about anything. But I kept coming back to this: politicians want to stay in office. Human psychology — not economic theory — was going to force some kind of easing on tariffs. That instinct turned out to be right.
Around noon, I bought more shares of NVO at $60. I had started the position at $72 a few weeks earlier, so this was some dollar cost averaging into a company with rock-solid financials (they make Ozempic). It felt like a smart move.
I also opened a position in CROX at about $88. My kids love them. I see Crocs all over the baseball fields. That kind of visibility tends to mean something.
Less than an hour later, the President announced a 90-day pause on certain tariffs. CROX was up 10%, NVO up 4% — from where I had bought — within the hour.
That was literally the quickest money I’ve ever made.
But I’m not selling. I think I’ve got good positions to ride long term — and I’ll be looking to add if the opportunity presents itself.
Funny enough, the day before, I had just written this post about investing during the U.S.–China trade war — where I had decided to wait on making any new moves. Then Trump flipped the script overnight. Markets move fast. I write these posts to stay honest about how my thinking evolves in real time.
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